Trump and Soleimani
Soleimani was Iran’s top general, and he had strong control over allied militias in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen. He was a trusted favorite of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei. President Trump ordered his killing, and the repercussions are as yet unknown but will not be good for either the US or Iran.
Potential repercussions are attacks on the US military, economic and citizenry throughout the Middle East. Other possible next steps are cyber attacks on the US. Attacks on US allies in Israel and Saudi Arabia may occur. I think it is likely that the attacks will have plausible deniability and will be designed to inflict economic pain on US citizens and likely targets are US oil interests. They may be carried out by Iran’s regional proxies. However, the military adviser to the Supreme Leaders has said the responses will be military in nature and carried out throughout the Middle East on American military installations and personnel over a prolonged period of time. President Trump has threatened massive military responses.
Iraq is caught in the middle – allied to both the US and Iran. Prior to the Soleimani assassination, many elements in the Shia and Sunni Arab communities were pushing for an ouster of the Iranian presence and domination in Iraq. Similar efforts were underway in Lebanon. Demonstrations against the government in Iran itself were being harshly suppressed. Now the Iraqi Parliament is calling for an ouster of the US military presence. This could provide an opening for the Sunni extremists previously allied with the Al Baghdadi and Al Zarqawi. The US forces and Iran allied militias had played key roles, although at arm’s length in liberating eastern Iraq and particularly cities like Mosul from the Sunni extremists. That détente is over, and the Sunni extremists will be beneficiaries.
Since the fall of Hussein, the Kurds in Iraq have had substantial autonomy under US protection; they have enjoyed strong economic growth, and their militias also played a key role in ousting Al Baghdadi from his strongholds in eastern Iraq. They are now in danger from Iran-backed militias, Turkey, Syria, and extrermist Iraqi Arabs.
Why is this happening? In May 2018, President Trump revoked the treaties negotiated by President Obama, which curtailed Iranian nuclear developments in exchange for the elimination of economic sanctions. These were agreements between the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, plus Germany and the EU with Iran. He then imposed new economic sanctions on Iran, which he has steadily tightened. Since then, the US and Iran have been in steadily escalating tit for tat responses including attacks on oil tankers, drones, militias, military installations and the US embassy in Baghdad.
There is no question that Iran and its allies are at loggerheads with the US and its regional allies throughout the Middle East, and that there is widespread armed regional conflict and killings. There is also no question that Soleimani was very effective in opposing the US, the Saudis and Israel and therefore a genuine “bad guy” from our perspective. There is a very legitimate question whether Soleimani was planning an imminent attack on the US, which the House and Senate Intelligence Committees will need to assess. We will then as a nation be able to assess whether this was legitimate and necessary act of national self-defense or a serious violation of international law. There are lots of genuine bad guys around the world and it’s not our role to go around killing them extra-judicially. Down that rabbit hole lies global chaos and anarchy.
President Trump has had a very unfortunate pattern of lying, so have the Iranian leaders. It is hard to know where truth lies. The UN and the EU should step in, mediate the conflicts and avoid further bloodshed.
Prepared by: Lucien Wulsin
Dated: 1/5/20