Flipping the Senate – 2020
Republicans have a 53-47 edge in the Senate. Democrats have to win 4 Republican seats and hold on to Senator Doug Jones seat in Alabama. Senator McConnell has used his majority to 1) put all House passed measures in the graveyard, meaning he refuses to even take them up for consideration in the Senate, 2) prevent any scrutiny of President Trump through the oversight process or issuance of subpoenas to hear from critical witnesses such as John Bolton or Mick Mulvaney, and 3) refused to consider the nomination of Judge Merrick Garland as President Obama’s nominee to the Supreme Court while railroading some utterly unqualified Trump appointments to the federal bench.
Thus even if a Democratic president is elected, the Senate Republicans will continue to block all meaningful legislation, Supreme Court nominees, Circuit Court nominees, Cabinet members and all other political appointees as long as they control the Senate. It is crucial for Democrats to flip the Senate. Presidential candidates have long coat tails in the Senate races when and if they win big. A strong performance by the Democratic presidential nominee lifts all boats, which will be absolutely essential in many of these tight Senate races.
Here are some great options, if you are interested.
Maine Senator Susan Collins (R) is being challenged by Maine House Speaker Sara Gideon. Gideon in the latest poll is leading by 4 points. https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/486183-poll-democrat-gideon-leads-gop-incumbent-collins-by-4-points-in-maine The Cook political report calls the race a toss-up. Gideon was key in leading the efforts for the Medicaid expansion over the opposition of Maine’s then Governor Paul LePage. Collins opposed Trump to preserve the ACA, but then helped put Kavanagh on the Supreme Court, and helped save Trump from being impeached. Her approval rating with Maine voters has tanked.
Arizona Senator Martha McSally (R) is being challenged by Mark Kelly, an astronaut and the husband of wounded AZ representative Gabby Gifford. Kelly leads by seven points. https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/486968-kelly-leads-mcsally-by-7-points-in-arizona-senate-poll She has been a down the line supporter of Trump. Cook Political Report believes the race is a toss up. He has been able to outraise her financially and is a phenomenal candidate.
Senator Cory Gardner of Colorado (R) is being challenged by former Governor John Hickenlooper. At the moment, the race leans Democratic. https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/483911-nonpartisan-election-forecaster-moves-colorado-senate-race-to-leans Gardner has been another down the line supporter of President Trump, who has become very unpopular in CO (about 35% approval). Hickenlooper was a very effective and popular Mayor of Denver and Governor of CO, and as a plus from my perspective, he grew up in Cincinnati. The race is considered “leans Democratic” with Hickenlooper as the nominee. https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/483911-nonpartisan-election-forecaster-moves-colorado-senate-race-to-leans Hickenlooper is being challenged from the left by former Speaker Andrew Romanoff, who just solidly won the state’s non-binding Democratic caucuses. The primary, which actually determines the party’s nominee, is at the end of June.
Senator Thom Tillis (R) of North Carolina is being challenged by Cal Cunningham, a US Army Veteran who served in Iraq and Afghanistan, runs a small business, and previously served as state Senator. https://www.calfornc.com/meet-cal/ The race is rated as a toss up. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/senate/nc/north_carolina_senate_tillis_vs_cunningham-6908.html Tillis has been down the line for Trump. Cunningham has been a leader on public education, crime reduction, drug addiction and the environment in North Carolina.
Governor Steve Bullock (D) of Montana is challenging Senator Steve Daines. https://www.rollcall.com/2020/03/09/rating-change-bullock-against-daines-puts-montana-in-play/ Montana has a history of vote-splitting between the parties. Democrats have had a series of popular and populist Governors and Senators. Bullock is a strong, popular, moderate Governor, who has been a leader on health care and economic growth. He survived the Trump landslide 2016 victory in his state. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steve_Bullock_(American_politician) Senator Daines is completing his first term. He has been a strong supporter of Trump, who is very popular in Montana, although Bullock is even more popular in Montana than Trump. https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/464838-trump-trails-bullock-in-montana-holds-lead-over-other-top-2020-democrats
Senator Doug Jones (D) of Alabama is in a difficult race with either Tommy Tuberville (ex-Auburn head football coach) or ex US Attorney General Jeff Sessions, one of Trump’s earliest endorsers. Jones beat Judge Roy Moore in a special election in 2017 to take Senator Sessions seat after he became Trump’s AG. The projections are that Tuberville will now beat Sessions due to Trump’s endorsement. The Cook Political Report ranks this race as “leans Republican”. Jones is a very courageous moderate on most issues; he tries to build bi-partisan consensus. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doug_Jones_(politician)
Senator Joni Ernst (R) of Iowa is among the least popular of the Senators seeking re-election in 2020, and her approval ratings are dropping. https://iowastartingline.com/2020/01/17/joni-ernst-is-third-most-unpopular-senator-in-america-new-polling-shows/ and https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/486515-joni-ernsts-approval-rating-dips-10-points-poll Her Democratic opponent will not be selected until June; however Teresa Greenberg, a Des Moines businesswoman is leading in fundraising. The Cook Report ranks this race as “leans Republican”. Iowa is a very flippy state, and Trump’s trade wars with China have badly hurt Iowa farmers and the farm economy. Trump is up by about 4 points on Joe Biden in Iowa.
Newly appointed Georgia Senator Kelly Loeffler (R) faces a tough primary against House Republican Doug Collins. Then she would need to beat the Democratic nominee, likely to be Raphael Warnock, pastor of the Ebenezer Baptist church or Matt Lieberman, a local businessman and the son of ex-CT Senator Joe Lieberman. https://cookpolitical.com/index.php/analysis/senate/georgia-senate/georgia-senate-special-election-moves-likely-lean-republican An upset is possible; see e.g. the strong performance of Stacey Abrams in the gubernatorial race. Combating voter suppression could be key in GA. Trump is up by 8 points on Joe Biden in the latest RCP and 538 summaries of polls.
Senator Pat Roberts of Kansas is retiring. Kris Kobach (R) is the leading Republican candidate to replace him; he is a hard right leader on immigration and voter suppression and a full time Trumper. Kobach lost the 2018 Kansas’ gubernatorial case to moderate Democrat Laura Kelly. Barbara Bollier of the Kansas Senate is the leading Democrat. While the polling is dead even, the Cook political report lists this as “lean Republican”. An upset is possible with Kobach in the race. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_Kansas
Senator Mitch McConnell is being challenged by ex-fighter pilot, Marine Lieutenant Colonel and Congressional candidate Amy McGrath in Kentucky. https://amymcgrath.com/ She is a native Kentuckian, is close in the polls and is a very strong fund raiser and compelling candidate. https://hillreporter.com/new-kentucky-polls-show-amy-mcgrath-hot-on-mcconnells-heels-59084 The 538 analysis suggests this is going to a tough race for McGrath to win even though McConnell is one of the nation’s least popular Senators in his own state. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-democrats-have-a-candidate-in-kentucky-but-can-she-beat-mitch-mcconnell/
I think the key thing we can do in our daily lives is simply to mobilize our own natural networks in support of the candidates who can make a difference.
Prepared by: Lucien Wulsin
Dated: 3/16/20