Report from LA
The new cases are going up; the hospitalizations are turning up, and the deaths are staying down for now. There is no telling yet whether it’s reopening or protesting or bad messaging and modeling from the nation’s President or what is causing the uptick in LA. For now, the health officials are saying “wear your masks and stay socially distanced.” They are continuing to reopen the economy; no telling what will happen with re-opening the schools this fall.
Hospitalizations hit a low of 1300 in early June from a high of close to 2000 in late April. They are back up to about 1500 now. The numbers of patients in ICUs and on ventilators are still going down for now.
85% of the confirmed cases are for people under 65; 75% of the deaths are for people over the age of 65. The poor and Latinos are over-represented among the confirmed cases; African Americans are over-represented among the deaths. Latinos are being less tested than other ethnicities. The positivity rates for those being tested are staying steady at 8%, down from 13% in late April.
I’m expecting cases, hospitalizations and ultimately deaths to increase. It appears that Covid 19 is now growing fastest in the suburbs of Orange and San Bernadino, Riverside and Ventura and the cause may be community transmission at large gatherings for backyard BBQs without mask wearing or social distancing.
The shutters are coming off the stores; the car traffic is increasing, and more people are on the street, on the beach, going to work or simply hanging out with friends. The plywood protection is coming off most stores and shops. There is a growing profusion of beautiful street art.
Prepared by: Lucien Wulsin
Dated: 6/24/20