Some Thoughts on Biden’s First 100 Days
He has certainly exceeded my expectations. Covid vaccinations have increased very quickly, and new case rates, deaths and hospitalizations have dropped precipitously; the economy has recovered at an accelerating pace; his legislative packages have been broad reaching and well thought out; his relations with Congress have been very good; he has lowered the temperature of partisan disagreements; he has rebuilt foreign alliances, and he has been willing to confront bad actions coming from Russia and China. After the mess that Trump left us in; he has made a good start towards healing the nation.
Covid. There have been over 200 million vaccinations; over half of all American adults have had one shot and over one third are fully vaccinated. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html The problem now is vaccine hesitancy among Trump voters, primarily men and evangelicals. https://khn.org/news/article/covid-vaccine-hesitancy-drops-among-americans-new-kff-survey-shows/ As the growth in supply has been increasing, the Biden Administration is reaching out to local faith leaders and other local leaders and local groups to reach the vaccine hesitant. https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/04/07/984697573/vaccine-refusal-may-put-herd-immunity-at-risk-researchers-warn New cases have fallen from an average of 250,000 a day in January to an average of 50,000 a day in late April. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html Covid hospitalizations have fallen from over 15,000 a day to about 5,000 a day. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/04232021/images/hospital-admissions.jpg?noicon Covid deaths have fallen from over 4,000 a day to about 750 a day. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/04232021/images/chart-deaths.jpg?noicon
The economy. The US economy is projected to have its strongest economic growth since 1984 – 6.4% growth in GDP in 2021 – in substantial measure due to Biden’s $1.9 trillion Covid stimulus package. https://www.cnn.com/2021/04/06/economy/imf-us-economy-recovery/index.html “American employers added 916,000 jobs in March, the biggest gain since August. The US manufacturing sector is also roaring ahead, with the ISM Manufacturing Index recently posting its best reading since 1983.” https://www.cnn.com/2021/04/06/economy/imf-us-economy-recovery/index.html The Federal Reserve is projecting solid growth in GDP for 2021, and low inflation (about 2% for the next three years); GDP growth will be slowing somewhat as employment continues to pick up in 2022. https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20210317.pdf
Legislative packages. Biden has three major legislative packages in the works. The first was for economic relief and Covid relief in the amount of $1.9 trillion. It has passed, been signed by the President, and is now being implemented. It included stimulus checks, extra UI checks, support (tax credits) for parents of children under 18, funding for vaccine production and distribution, funding to reopen schools and to keep state and local governments whole. https://www.bbc.com/news/business-56019033 These increases were one time only and did not include any “pay fors” (i.e. tax increases or program reductions).
The second is for infrastructure in the amount of $2 trillion over the next eight years, paid for by increasing the corporate income tax rates from 21% to 28%. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/31/business/economy/biden-infrastructure-plan.html It envisages a change from gas to electric cars and from fossil fuels to zero emission energy alternatives like wind and solar over the next decade. It will fund repairs of roads and bridges, airports and seaports, rural broadband, improved public transit and rail services, the infrastructure for electric vehicles, clean water and many other improvements. https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/03/31/fact-sheet-the-american-jobs-plan/ This bill has the potential to increase the nation’s productivity and competitiveness and begin the necessary transition away from transportation and energy policies that are producing such dangerous climate change. There is a big increase in funding for home and community based care and services to vulnerable seniors and the disabled.
The third bill being released this week is the “American Families Plan” in the amount of about $2 trillion over the next ten years. https://www.cnn.com/2021/04/26/politics/american-family-plan-state-of-play/index.html It includes the following:
· “Child care funding
· Free community college
· Universal pre-K
· Paid family and medical leave
· Extend the expanded child tax credit to 2025
· Extend the expanded Earned Income Tax Credit
· Extension of expanded Affordable Care Act subsidies.”
It will be paid for by an increase in the capital gains taxes for those making a million dollars or more and in the marginal tax rates for the top earners. https://www.cnn.com/2021/04/26/politics/american-family-plan-state-of-play/index.html and https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bidens-american-families-plan-is-coming-whats-in-it-11618943914 These are the sort of policies that can make a huge improvement in American family life by relieving costs of child care, pre-school and college and helping family incomes which are often badly stretched during the child rearing years.
To date, Republican Senators have responded on two fronts: 1) pare your proposals back by about 3/4ths, and 2) do not increase taxes on high wage individuals or corporations. It appears that the Biden proposals are more popular with rank and file Republican voters than with Congressional Republican politicians. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/15/business/economy/infrastructure-economy-biden.html It may be possible to enact some of the Biden proposals through a majority vote budget reconciliation process and others through negotiations with some Senate Republicans.
It’s a very pro-worker, pro-economic growth, pro-family and pro-environment set of proposals, more reminiscent of FDR and LBJ than of Clinton and Obama. It is largely financed with taxes on the very wealthy and the highly profitable corporations who have drastically reduced and largely escaped paying their fair share of the nation’s taxes under the tax policies promoted by Trump, Bush and Reagan.
Prepared by: Lucien Wulsin
Dated: 4/27/21