The 2020 Census and Reapportionment
In the 2020 Census, the US had the slowest population growth (7.4%) since the 1930’s. Within that growth, the South and West gained the most and the Northeast and Midwest grew the least. Urban and suburban areas grew substantially while most rural communities lost population. Hispanics (23% population growth), Asians and mixed-race individuals grew the most, while whites declined as a percent of the US population by 8.6%.
The following states are scheduled to gain Congressional seats – Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina, Oregon and Texas (2). The following states are scheduled to lose seats in the next Congress – California, Illinois, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia.
Where did the populations decline? Rural counties lost populations nearly everywhere, and metropolitan areas grew 9%. Half of all US counties experienced population declines.
By contrast, 80% of all metropolitan areas grew, and some grew very fast. The fastest growing counties were Harris County (Houston), Maricopa County (Phoenix), King County (Seattle), Clark County (Las Vegas) and Tarrant County (Dallas-Fort Worth). The fastest growing big cities were Phoenix, Houston, New York City and San Antonio.
The states with the biggest population declines were West Virginia, Mississippi, and Illinois. The fastest growing states were: Utah, Idaho, Texas, North Dakota and Nevada.
The population under the age of 18 declined over the last decade reflecting a lower birth rate. The Northeast had the oldest population, the South the youngest. The West had the fastest population growth among voting age adults.
We became a far more ethnically diverse nation over the last decade. Hawaii and California were the most ethnically diverse states, followed closely by Nevada, Maryland, DC, Texas, New Jersey, New York, Georgia and Florida. The rates of demographic change by ethnicity in those ten most diverse states were slowest in Hawaii and California. States like Vermont, Maine, West Virginia and New Hampshire have remained overwhelmingly white, and their ethnic makeup has changed very little over the last decade.
In essence, counties with the highest percentages of Trump voters from the last election (rural counties) are declining in population, while the metropolitan areas where Biden did best in 2020 are growing fastest. The coming decennial reapportionment should give greater representation to minorities, urban and suburban communities since that is where the fastest population growth has been occurring. Reapportionment could therefore be an incredible opportunity to give greater political voice to those regions and those communities generating the largest economic gains and the greatest demographic growth in the nation. However some state legislators will likely seek to use extreme partisan gerrymandering (a process known as packing and cracking) to preserve and expand their own voting power base among white, rural and older populations whose relative and actual numbers are declining. And partisan gerrymandering in combination with new voter suppression techniques could then be used subtly and to dramatic effect to distort the constitutional requirements of “one man one vote”. The Supreme Court’s conservative majority has decided its not the Court’s role to reform partisan gerrymandering, that’s Congress’ role and responsibility. The Freedom to Vote Act pending in the US Senate includes important reforms to bring more transparency, accountability and fairness into the upcoming reapportionment process.
Sources: US Department of Commerce, US Census Bureau, Population Changes and the Nation’s Ethnic and Racial Diversity; More than Half of US Counties were Smaller in 2020 than in 2010; Table 1 Apportionment Population and Number of Representatives by State, 2020 Census,