Putin, Russia and Ukraine
Ukraine is an independent nation of 45 million, bordering Russia. It has some of the most fertile agricultural land in the world. It also is a center of heavy industry. It would like over time to join NATO and the EU to bolster its economic development and gain access to security protections against Russia and improve commercial access to European markets.
Russia is a heavily armed, nuclear neighbor with lots of natural resources, including oil and gas that it exports to the rest of Europe. It is about two and a half times as large as Ukraine by population, but about half the population size of the former USSR.
The USSR or Soviet Union comprised 15 separate soviet republics, which under the Constitution of the USSR had the right to join or depart from the Union. Each republic had borders with a foreign nation making its exit from the USSR viable in theory although not in practice.
When the USSR imploded in the early 90’s, each of the 15 republics chose independence. Several have embraced democracy and joined NATO and the EU; these include Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania, known as the Baltics.
Others have embraced autocracy and remained largely within the Russian orbit. Belarus is a prime example.
Putin has stirred up separatist movements among Russian speaking minorities in many of these newly independent states; Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine are prime examples. He has brought in Russian troops to invade sovereign nations. He has annexed parts of Ukraine like Crimea. He also annexed portions of Georgia -- Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Likewise, the area of Moldova known as Transdniestria has been occupied by Russian forces. Others, inspired in part by Bin Laden and AlQaeda, have stirred up religious and ethnic tensions against his rule: Chechnya and Dagestan.
Now he is seeking to annex the eastern part of Ukraine – Luhansk and Donetsk. These are or were the more industrialized regions with lots of Russian speakers. They were once thriving centers; they are now desolate ruins, governed by local dictators, creating abominable living conditions for their residents. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/22/what-are-donetsk-and-luhansk-ukraines-separatist-statelets.
What has Putin done? He recognized the two breakaway regions as independent states and sent his troops in. https://www.vox.com/2022/2/21/22944995/russia-vladimir-putin-orders-troops-ukraine-east-donbas It’s unclear whether he intends to keep going and attack the rest of Ukraine. NATO, the US and the EU are going to respond with sanctions; it is unclear how strong the sanctions will be, but Germany has halted the certification of the NordStream pipeline which was scheduled to deliver Russian gas to German industry.
This is not unlike the lead up to World War II when under the pretext of protecting German speaking citizens Hitler invaded first Austria and then Czechoslovakia. Great Britain and France practiced a policy of appeasement. Poland was next, followed by the Netherlands, Belgium and France. Hitler was intent on domination in Europe; he particularly coveted Ukraine for its resources.
Putin seeks instead to resurrect the Russian Empire and its spheres of influence in Eastern Europe and Central Asia. He believes Ukraine is the domino or pivot point which allows him to expand Russian dominion, and he fears the prospect of a thriving and independent democracy and Western-aligned economy in such close proximity as a vivid counterpoint to his authoritarian rule.
This is a high stakes gamble for him, and he is calculating the blowback. Will NATO and the EU stand firm, and how will sanctions impact the Russian economy? The Russian economy is heavily dependent on its oil and gas exports, but so is Europe dependent on imports of oil and gas from Europe. https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-economy-basically-big-gas-station-harvard-economist-2022-2 Since the 2014 annexation of Crimea and the resulting sanctions, the growth of the Russian economy has been stagnant. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=RU
Will the GOP stand with Putin or with Biden? Fiona Hill warns that President Trump’s policies towards Russia and Ukraine paved the way for Putin’s incursion. https://www.businessinsider.com/fiona-hill-trump-paved-way-russia-invade-ukraine-2022-2 Charley Sykes, a prominent conservative, has called out Putin’s amen chorus among the MAGA movement’s ideologues. https://morningshots.thebulwark.com/p/putins-right-wing-shills?utm_source=url
The US has solidified its position with its European allies in their collective willingness to impose economic sanctions, but it is equally clear that no one in NATO is ready to get into a military conflict with Russia to protect Ukraine.