Nuclear war, economic war, bombing and starvation
Putin has invaded and is shelling civilians, encircling cities, attacking nuclear power plants and cutting off access to food, water and electricity in the major Ukrainian cities. This is not his first rodeo; he’s invaded Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine before his most recent invasion of most of Ukraine.
NATO and the EU responded to this invasion zwith economic sanctions aimed directly at the oligarchs and Putin cronies and are sending tons of arms and weapons to help the Ukrainians defend themselves. They are seizing yachts, houses, and property of Putin cronies abroad.
Zelenskyy wants NATO to impose a no-fly zone over Ukraine to keep Russian planes from bombing the Ukrainians. This would lead to direct conflict between NATO and Putin with the potential to escalate into World War III and nuclear exchanges.
In the short term, it is a very uneven battle, Putin has more arms, greater firepower, a larger and stronger military, a larger population, and much higher GDP. However, Zelenskyy has a unified population and the ever-growing weight of world opinion on his side; volunteers are pouring into the Ukrainian cause, not to the Russians. The longer this goes on, the more Putin loses, and the likelihood increases that he will be ousted at some point by his economic and security cronies. He has banned journalists so that his own people are kept in the dark about what is happening, but information seeps in nevertheless and brave Russian protesters still step forward to protest his invasion.
Russians abroad and Russia’s star athletes in international sports are denouncing the war and calling for peace. This will take a long time and a huge amount of civilian suffering before it is resolved; in some ways, the strongest weapons the Ukrainians have is their ability to endure their suffering and outlast Putin. Let us never forget the mass starvation that Stalin inflicted on the Ukrainians; you may be sure they have not. Let us also remember the horrors of antisemitism at Babyn Yar; that too forms the character, souls and bravery of modern Ukraine.
Israel has offered to serve as a mediator. That could be an interesting and possible way out, but Putin is not interested; he is still counting on a fast military win. The prospects are instead for a long grinding conflict and terrible long-term consequences for the Russian and Ukrainian people. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/ukraine/2022-03-04/what-if-russia-loses?utm_source=pocket-newtab Pressure from China on Russia is the best way to get Putin to negotiate and withdraw, but that seems a long shot at this time.
In the US, we need to steadily increase our support for Ukraine, while avoiding WW III and an unimaginable nuclear exchange. If we need to pay more to fill our gas tanks without Russian oil, so be it; this is a small price for the US to pay. If we all need to develop alternative energy sources to oil and gas more quickly, this would be welcome. If this rebuilds American and European unity of purpose, strengthens our democracies, and isolates the far rightist and white supremacist fringes taking their inspiration from Putin, this would not be a bad development either. We need to recognize that we are now involved in a war even though our troops are not engaged and our citizens are not dying. Putin is intent on establishing Russian dominance in Eastern Europe; he has made that clear to all in the run up to this invasion; this is not simply about whether or not Ukraine might or might not join NATO in the foreseeable future.
Putin has had political allies within Germany, France, Italy and the US; he may have burned some bridges by his conduct thus far. But if he wins in Ukraine, he and they will emerge emboldened in their ongoing assault on our democracies.