It’s the Economy
There is very little recognition in the Presidential debates that the American economy is doing quite well. Thank you very much Barack Obama and Joe Biden.
We are outpacing Europe and China, Japan and most of the developed world in economic growth. https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/why-is-the-u-s-gdp-recovering-faster-than-other-advanced-economies-20240517.html and https://www.axios.com/2024/01/31/us-economy-2024-gdp-g7-nations Our stock markets have been at record highs and outperforming the rest of the world by a large margin. https://www.hartfordfunds.com/dam/en/docs/pub/whitepapers/CCWP014.pdf We have brought inflation under control without sending the economy into a recession. https://www.americanprogress.org/article/despite-global-inflation-the-u-s-economic-recovery-is-among-the-strongest-of-g-7-nations/ Instead, we have had low unemployment and record job growth. https://www.usbank.com/investing/financial-perspectives/market-news/effect-of-job-market-on-the-economy.html So US GDP per capita, productivity, real wages, and personal incomes are all rising; that’s a sign of a very healthy economy. https://www.economist.com/special-report/2024/10/14/what-can-stop-the-american-economy-now
So how’s the economy doing right now? Real GDP (that’s after inflation) rose in 49 states, and DC. Its highest rise was in Idaho (5.9%) and lowest in Alaska (-1.1%). https://www.bea.gov/news/2024/gross-domestic-product-state-and-personal-income-state-2nd-quarter-2024
Current dollar GDP rose in all 50 states, led by Idaho (8.0%) to a low in Alaska (3%).
Personal incomes rose in all 50 states from a high of 6.9 in South Carolina to a low of 2.3% in North Dakota.
How is the economy doing in the swing states? Personal incomes grew by 6.1% in Michigan, 5.3% in Pennsylvania and 4.3% in Wisconsin. https://www.bea.gov/news/2024/gross-domestic-product-state-and-personal-income-state-2nd-quarter-2024 Personal incomes grew by 5.3% in North Carolina, 4.8% in Georgia, 5.2% in Arizona and 4.6% in Nevada. https://www.bea.gov/news/2024/gross-domestic-product-state-and-personal-income-state-2nd-quarter-2024
How is the private sector doing? Private goods producing industries (e.g. cars, oil, and manufacturing) grew by 6.9%, private services producing industries (e.g health care, and real estate) grew by 2.4% and government (e.g. police, fire and public schools) by 0.8%. https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gdp-industry
What brought us to this state? In 2008, the US financial system tanked and nearly brought the rest of the world with it into what became the “Great Recession”. It was the result of widespread financial shenanigans in the US real estate and banking systems. Many people lost their homes and jobs; the US banks, insurance industry, stock markets, and auto manufacturing came very close to a total collapse, meaning we would lose our money in the banks, in retirement accounts, etc. The Obama Administration bailed out the banks, insurers and car manufacturers; they had to pay the money back, and they had to stop the predatory and fraudulent practices in the real estate, mortgage foreclosure, and financial industries; they had to revamp the auto industry and did so successfully. https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/great-recession-and-its-aftermath#:~:text=The%20recession%20ended%20in%20June,remained%20at%20historically%20elevated%20levels and https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/sites/default/files/uploads/auto_report_06_01_11.pdf
Since the Great Recession of 2008, the US economy has been on a very steady economic growth rate under Presidents Obama, Trump and Biden, interrupted quite dramatically by the severe shock of Covid pandemic induced recession and the freeze up in global supply chains. https://www.investopedia.com/gdp-growth-by-president-8604042 and https://www.dw.com/en/obama-trump-biden-does-the-us-economy-care-who-is-president-v1/a-70512276
The Obama Administration passed the Affordable Care Act (aka ObamaCare) to extend full health coverage to all Americans, with important premium subsidies for low, moderate and middle income Americans (refundable tax credits); it was fully funded and paid for by a series of cuts in the federal health budget and a surcharge on the incomes of higher income Americans. It has cut the numbers of the nation’s uninsured in half -- even more so in states like California that fully embraced it and much less so in states like Texas where the Governor and state legislature did all they possibly could to hamper its administration.
The Trump Administration passed a large tax cut heavily skewed to businesses and high-income individuals, and it got into a trade war with China. https://www.jec.senate.gov/public/_cache/files/2c298bda-8aee-4923-84a3-95a54f7f6e6f/did-trump-create-or-inherit-the-strong-economy-final.pdf The Trump tax cuts were heavily skewed to the very wealthy and to large corporations; it did not promote greater economic growth or higher wages and incomes, except for those in the top 10% of the income distribution who experienced a sugar high, disconnected from any increase in productivity. https://www.cbpp.org/research/federal-tax/the-2017-trump-tax-law-was-skewed-to-the-rich-expensive-and-failed-to-deliver President Trump got into a trade war with China, and got virtually nothing out of it while damaging the US economy, particularly agricultural exports to China; farmers needed a bail out from Trump as a result. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/more-pain-than-gain-how-the-us-china-trade-war-hurt-america/ None of the Trump policies were offset by either spending cuts or increased taxes; they simply increased the national debt.
Trump sought to repeal the ACA’s premium assistance and Medicaid expansions to low, moderate and middle income uninsured Americans that were part of ObamaCare. He fortunately failed on a dramatic late night “no” vote by Senator John McCain.
When the Covid pandemic hit, the US economy and much of the global economy froze up, except for essential services and their workers. Businesses and workers were both badly damaged. Congress and the Trump Administration provided economic relief using the Unemployment Insurance system for workers and the Small Business Administration for small and medium sized businesses. They were overloaded and had a hard time keeping up with people’s needs. You may (or may not) remember the long lines of cars full of people needing to wait for free food.
Supply chains were frozen up; global shipping was frozen, so there was an inadequate supply of goods ranging from the basics of toilet paper on up. The combination of ample new Covid disaster assistance dollars for individuals and employers and severe shortages of goods and services led to a period of sticky high price inflation for the short supplies of available consumer goods. As the economy recovered from the worst of Covid, the new Biden Administration began the process of rebuilding the economy and laying the foundations for solid, sustainable economic growth.
Biden and Congress passed a long overdue infrastructure bill to rebuild roads and bridges, energy transmission, water supplies, rural broadband and protection of the environment. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/at-its-two-year-anniversary-the-bipartisan-infrastructure-law-continues-to-rebuild-all-of-america/
Biden and Congress passed the American Rescue Plan which used tax credits through the tax system to help people with their individual health insurance premiums, with the costs of raising children, the costs of childcare and other essentials of daily living. https://www.whitehouse.gov/american-rescue-plan/ The temporary child tax credit, for example, cut the poverty rates for young children in half. https://www.epi.org/blog/child-tax-credit-expansions-were-instrumental-in-reducing-poverty-to-historic-lows-in-2021/
Biden and Congress passed the Inflation Reduction Act to bring down the costs of energy, promote American manufacture of electric vehicles, batteries and solar panels. https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/08/16/fact-sheet-one-year-in-president-bidens-inflation-reduction-act-is-driving-historic-climate-action-and-investing-in-america-to-create-good-paying-jobs-and-reduce-costs/
Biden and Congress passed the CHIPs Act to fund American-based manufacture of the vital semi-conductor industry. https://www.commerce.gov/news/blog/2024/08/two-years-later-funding-chips-and-science-act-creating-quality-jobs-growing-local
Russia invaded Ukraine, the breadbasket of Europe, the Middle East and much of Africa. The Russian navy blockaded Ukrainian ports so that Ukraine’s grains could not be delivered. NATO imposed sanctions on the Russian oil and gas industry to deter Putin. These delivered severe shocks to the global supplies of food, gas and oil, and caused the prices of food and energy to soar. https://www.economicsobservatory.com/ukraine-whats-the-global-economic-impact-of-russias-invasion Under Biden, US oil and gas production have each reached record highs to meet both domestic and global demand. https://www.statista.com/statistics/265331/natural-gas-production-in-the-us/ As a result of the Russian invasion of the Ukraine, US agricultural production increased, but so did US farm expenses; American consumers saw a big, unexpected increase in prices at the supermarket. https://www.choicesmagazine.org/choices-magazine/theme-articles/turmoil-in-global-food-agricultural-and--input-markets-implications-of-russias-invasion-of-ukraine/impacts-of-russias-invasion-of-ukraine-on-us-agriculture#:~:text=In%20absolute%20terms%2C%20the%20largest,considering%20impacts%20of%20the%20war
The Biden Administration and Congress’ extraordinary accomplishments over the past four years will pay long term benefits for all Americans. They are building blocks for the nation’s future, and needless to say they are in serious peril.