Thoughts after the Election
It looks to me like a pretty thoroughgoing repudiation of Donald Trump personally, but not of the swampiest sectors of the Republican Party from which he emerged. This was not a triumph for progressives, but rather for the center-left. It is certainly a damaging loss for Republicans to have lost the Presidency, to have alienated many in their own party, and to have behaved so disgracefully in their obeisance to President Trump for the last four years and in the election’s aftermath.
So now Democrats led by President-elect Joe Biden will have to govern in concert with some Republicans with two immediate goals: 1) get the pandemic under control and 2) get the economic recovery rolling and do so equitably. The vaccine is coming, but it’s not a cure-all vaccine, and it’s going to be hard to distribute; it will probably take all of 2021 before it’s fully distributed and having its desired effects. So for the next year, we will all need to mask up, stay socially distanced, not hang out in large crowds, especially indoors. We have to get the testing numbers way up and make the tests very simple and easily home administered if we can. Quarantines of the many with the virus are essential while they are infectious, and financial support for them while they are out of work will be critical to safer workplaces and homes.
The recovery is K-shaped; the winners are doing very, very well, and the unemployed and those in particular sectors of the economy like restaurants, travel and entertainment are hurting badly, very badly. We are in some degree of danger of falling into a double dip recession. State and local government revenues are hurt, but not all in equal measure; those most reliant on tourism and travel like a Hawaii are likely to be worst impacted. Those states with revenues generated by oil severance taxes, food production or exceedingly reliant on local property taxes will be better insulated than those like a California with a broad and diverse economy, but a state revenue base, which is deeply dependent on income tax revenues, which have fallen sharply in the pandemic. State and local government funds our schools, our fire and police departments, our public safety, our roads, sewers and water, our correctional facilities; these are not red or blue priorities at local levels; these are services for all of us.
Our next federal economic relief package needs to be much more carefully targeted, and it is urgent that we act quickly with whatever consensus we can muster before economic conditions worsen further as the pandemic is now spreading very fast. In my opinion, the relief packages for the unemployed, for some small employers, for testing and tracing, for airlines, for restaurant workers are far more imperative than a broad-based, untargeted $1200 check. It is unclear whether Trump can recover enough equanimity after the election loss to be of any use in this process, and whether he will give Mnuchin, Pelosi and McConnell enough space and negotiating freedom to reach sensible compromises or whether we must wait another two months for President-elect Biden to lead the nation forward.
The importance of preserving and building health coverage for every American has never been more obvious as hospitals struggle to treat those most sick from the now all-pervasive and fast encompassing spread of Covid 19. The first important step is preserving the enhanced Medicaid match for states facing reduced tax revenues due to the recession. The second is expanding Medicaid to the working poor in the remaining Southern and Midwestern states who opted not to expand; the so called Medicaid gap. For the last several years, Medicaid expansion has been done via a steady, string of successful state ballot initiatives; the next one is scheduled for Florida in 2022. It’s time for Southern Republican senators to simply meet Joe Biden more than halfway and use Medicare to cover the working poor in non-expansion states; this will help about 5 million low income Americans living for the most part in “red” states. Third, the public option in the Exchanges is not going to get approval from Senate Republicans; however increasing the income thresholds and premium assistance for individual coverage in the Exchanges would help the moderate and middle-income constituencies in both parties, and it has even been a part of some of the health reform ideas advanced by some Republican legislators.
The flex workforce (gig workers) does not get any federal or state labor law protections; it is about 12-15% of the labor market and is typically un-benefitted -- i.e. they do not qualify for UI, Worker’s Comp or Health Insurance from their employers. The federal CARES Act covers them through UI temporarily, but that expires in January and needs to be extended by Congress. Uber, Lyft and others who employ (contract with) drivers took their gig workers out of the ambit of state labor law protections clarified by AB 5 and offered them health insurance contributions, disability insurance and minimum earning guarantees under California’s Prop 22, which they financed to the tune of $200 million. https://qz.com/1926229/the-meaning-of-ubers-win-on-prop-22-in-california/ We have to address UI, Health, Worker’s Comp and other coverage for gig workers at the federal level. This is going to require a very difficult to achieve consensus from labor and management, from Democrats and Republicans; it is readily apparent how unprepared our UI system was for the magnitude of economic harm of the Covid recession.
Let’s move forward on such issues with an effort to show some measure of bi-partisanship to help all of America.
Prepared by: Lucien Wulsin
Dated: 11/6/20