Thoughts after Iowa and New Hampshire
Two very white states have voted. Sanders and Buttigieg are on top; Biden and Warren are fading while Klobuchar is rising, and Bloomberg looms. Let’s see what the next two states have to say about this; its very early in what is likely a long process.
Sanders is clearly dominating among progressive voters, and Warren is fading. I’m not sure why, as she has chosen to spell out her plans, and he just speaks in slogans with no clear financing attached. He has been a model of consistency and still speaks as the Old Testament prophet or old style rabble-rousing labor leader. She has been evolving in her positions and speaks more like an impassioned teacher impatient with those who disagree or challenge her views. She says she is capitalist to the bone; he says he’s a Democratic Socialist. By that she means that she would regulate the excesses of late stage capitalism. For example she would regulate bankers and banking and break up the monopolies and oligopolies that have taken over such large sectors of our economy to make it more competitive. As a Democratic Socialist, he might be more inclined during an economic crisis like the Great Recession to take over the banks or create new public banks. Realistically that is not in the cards, but that is the nub of their differences. They both agree on a single payer health system and free public college; these are not socialist ideas, but rather are quite common among Western democracies. A socialist health system would be more like the British National Health Service where the government owns the hospitals and employs the doctors. The Warren/Sanders proposal has the government paying private doctors and private hospitals; it eliminates the insurance companies who have been rather ineffective at controlling rising prices and replaces it with government (like Medicare) which has been somewhat more successful than private insurance in slowing rising prices. There is a huge transaction cost to eliminate all private insurance and all out of pocket for patients and consumers as Sanders/Warren are proposing. It would be a better system, but is hardly the panacea to what ails us as a nation and has been causing our declining life expectancies – that is not the health system per se, but rather economic and social “despair”.
Buttigieg, Klobuchar (rising) and Biden (falling) are dominating among moderates; they are all in fact quite liberal, but less so than Warren and Sanders. Buttigieg speaks in complete thoughts and his positions are well thought through and expressed; his positions are mostly political and practical – i.e. what can we get done and how can we do it, as opposed to ideologically driven like Sanders. Although smart and practical, he is still very inexperienced and young at age 38. Biden has quickly collapsed from front runner to also ran; this is mostly self-inflicted as he is having a great deal of difficulty speaking in complete sentences and thoughts, and in the last debate he was substituting volume and quick insider short hand for persuasion. He is right in touch with the American people on so many issues; his gut instincts are very good. While he is the most experienced of the candidates and a very likeable human being, he is having great difficulty making the case for his candidacy and connecting with those voters not already in his camp. So he has been losing late deciders and thus badly lost the first two elections. The next two contests will likely decide his fate. Klobuchar is rising as Biden falls. Like Mayor Pete, she falls in the practical, let’s get it done stage. She’s experienced, humorous, genuine, easy to understand, and quick with the quip. In the final analysis, it now appears likely to me that it will be either Klobuchar or Buttigieg against Sanders for the nomination. They are more inclusive and more able and likely to assemble a broad national coalition to beat Trump; whereas, Sanders is leading a powerful movement of passionate supporters aiming to restructure the direction of the nation. Klobuchar/Buttigieg are able to express their goals for a new direction for the nation without rousing the inchoate fears that Sanders does, but they lack the compelling short hand slogans for change that Sanders has captured for his followers.
Bloomberg looms on Super Tuesday less than a month away; despite his ubiquitous advertising, it’s still way too early to understand how a multi-billionaire of this magnitude connects with the Democratic electorate. He might be the strongest candidate in November, but it’s still unclear to me how he will capture the hearts, the passions and the minds of Democratic primary voters.
Prepared by: Lucien Wulsin
Dated: 2/12/20