Contact Tracing and Other Covid 19 Strategies
There are 840,000 confirmed cases in the US and based on the recent studies in LA and Santa Clara counties, there could be between 30 and 50 times as many cases. https://news.usc.edu/168987/antibody-testing-results-covid-19-infections-los-angeles-county/ Each person, with the symptoms or asymptomatic, has the ability to infect three or more other persons. Some individuals are unfortunately super-spreaders, like the patient in New Rochelle or the patient in Albany GA.
A key element of the recommended “test, track and quarantine” strategy is tracing the interactions of the Covid 19 infected patients and informing those who may be infected so they can self-quarantine. The recently released recommendations from Johns Hopkins are that we will need 100,000 contact tracers to do so. https://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/our-work/pubs_archive/pubs-pdfs/2020/a-national-plan-to-enable-comprehensive-COVID-19-case-finding-and-contact-tracing-in-the-US.pdf . We have about 2,000 at the federal, state and local levels.
A recent study from the Harvard School of Ethics recommends 20 million tests and 100,000 contact tracers so we can safely reopen the economy for our population of 330 million. https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/493722-us-needs-to-conduct-20-million-coronavirus-tests-per-day-to-fully-open
Professor Michael Osterholm, Founder University of Minnesota's Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy, warns that we are in the second inning of a nine inning game lasting at least the next several years. He descries the sidelining of the CDC experts from the White House task force on Covid 19. He concludes that the young and healthy will need to return to work quite soon while the old and those with pre-existing conditions stay in isolation at home and work from our homes. He questions the quality and reliability of the current Covid 19 tests to produce accurate results, doubts our ability to manufacture adequate testing in sufficient numbers and questions our ability and capacity to quickly manufacture sufficient vaccines for the US and the world’s population, once we do develop the elusive vaccine. https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/21/opinions/bergen-osterholm-interview-two-opinion/index.html
Dr. Robert Redfield, Director of the CDC, notes we will face a renewed and even worse Covid 19 epidemic next fall and winter. https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/22/politics/robert-redfield-cdc-mcenany/index.html It is being suggested that we could redeploy Peace Corps volunteers, Americorps volunteers, and even US census takers to undertake contact tracing. Massachusetts, Michigan and Maryland are all out ahead of the curve in deploying contact tracers. https://www.npr.org/2020/04/21/840522572/cdc-director-shares-plan-on-contact-tracing Massachusetts has launched its program of 1,000 contact tracers while in the midst of battling one of the nation’s biggest outbreaks. https://www.cbsnews.com/video/massachusetts-ramps-up-contact-tracing-program/ Governors in New York and California are now recommending armies of contact tracers so we can allow people to return to work while tracking and quarantining any outbreaks that arise.
This could be augmented, supplemented and made far more effective by digital tracing using your smart phone to alert you that you have been in contact with a Covid 19 positive individual. There are lots of privacy, technology, and widespread public acceptance hurdles to surmount in order to make this a reality.
Prepared by: Lucien Wulsin
Dated: 4/22/20